23rd
Viral expansion loops
There is a great article on FastCompany link somehow related to the great success that Ning has ,but realy is about the general theory around the products/services following a viral expansion loop strategy.
Although everybody is familiar by now with Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Ning and all the others, and there is no secret (is actually pretty in your face) the viral component embedded in them, business wise one thing struck me.
One of the key benefits of this strategy is the ability to estimate growth, and for everyone who has ever written a business plan ever, estimating growth is a challenge in general.
This thing got me thinking a little deeper…
How can one estimate growth for a new service?
It might help looking at the competitor’s similar services and maybe use, if accessible, their analytical data.
But what is the service is really original and there is no one to compare to and no data to analyze and of course no money to spend with big marketing departments doing forecasts models, focus groups e.t.c?
Then you’re pretty much on your own and in the dark.
In most cases the scenario goes like this:
- Hopping for the best, you launch.
- After start doing some publicity, viral campaigns to build the momentum and bring users to your service, hopefully to gain traction.
- But once the viral campaigns are gone (as they can’t go forever) so is the tractions and finally the users.
The traction actually is represented by the viral expansion mechanisms built in your service.
The viral campaigns just bring users to the website but then the viral mechanisms do the growing.(users inviting other users, users sending links e.t.c).
Is safe to say that if you don’t have those working than your doomed.
Leave your service for a few days on his own. Is it alive? Is it growing?
If it does, you’re lucky. Calculate the growth rate,cause now you have one, and you can use it as a guiding pole to run the business behind the service.
It is the most valuable indicator.
It’s your service pulse,and is priceless.
